钢铁行业周报：淡旺季转换，钢价承压

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][6][25] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently transitioning from peak to off-peak season, with a slight decline in apparent consumption of steel. Although the supply side's growth has slowed, steel mills are still increasing their molten iron production, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance. As the traditional peak season ends and temperatures drop in northern regions, there is a risk of further demand decline, and the market is expected to operate weakly in the short term. In the long term, the industry is expected to develop towards high-quality growth, with leading companies that have scale advantages becoming more valuable for investment [6][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The steel sector increased by 0.24% last week, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.55 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is 16.25 times, at the 65.95 percentile over the past decade, while the PB ratio is 0.92 times, at the 18.2 percentile [2][3]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 25, the total production of five major steel products was 8.8048 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.82%. The operating rate of sample steel mills was 82.16%, up 0.46 percentage points week-on-week [4]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.938 million tons, down 1.9% week-on-week, with construction materials consumption down 5.6% [4][17]. - Inventory: Total inventory of five major steel products was 12.594 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.02% [4]. Profitability and Pricing - The profitability of steel mills has rapidly declined, with the profitability rate of 247 sample steel companies at 64.96%, down 9.52 percentage points week-on-week. The price indices for various steel products have shown mixed trends, with rebar prices down 3.05% [5][17][19]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the industry is in a critical phase of transitioning between peak and off-peak seasons, with a potential for further demand decline. In the long term, the focus on high-quality development and regional capacity consolidation will enhance the investment value of leading companies [6][25].