Homa(002668) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 04:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Smart Home (002668) with an updated target price of RMB 13.8, up from RMB 12.15 previously [6][13] Core Views - TCL Smart Home's Q3 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by strong export growth and improved profitability in its Oma subsidiary [4][13] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 13.945 billion, up 22.95% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 825 million, up 29.56% YoY [4][15] - Oma's revenue growth outpaced TCL Hefei's washing and refrigeration business, with Oma expected to grow 20-25% YoY in Q3 2024, while TCL Hefei grew 10-15% [4][16] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024, reaching 24.04%, up 1.93 percentage points YoY, driven by higher sales of Oma's mid-to-high-end products [4][18] - Oma's net profit margin reached 13.8% in Q3 2024, contributing RMB 252 million to the parent company, while TCL Hefei's net profit was less than RMB 14 million [4][18] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 1.35 billion, down 36% YoY, mainly due to increased payments to suppliers [20] Business Segments - Oma's refrigerator exports increased by 11% YoY in Q3 2024, while domestic sales grew by 2%, with mid-to-high-end products driving average selling prices higher [17] - TCL Hefei's refrigerator exports grew by 58% YoY in Q3 2024, while domestic sales declined by 5%, with washing machine exports up 50% and domestic sales up 22% [17] - TCL Hefei's gross margin remains around 10% due to new capacity investments, with expected improvements as capacity utilization increases [4][21] Market and Industry Outlook - The report expects the company's revenue growth to slow in Q4 2024, with more balanced growth between domestic and export sales [17] - The company's profitability is expected to improve further as Oma's mid-to-high-end product sales increase and shipping costs decline [4][21]