洽洽食品：收入逐步改善，利润大幅回升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the company, with projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 being 17, 15, and 13 times respectively [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.758 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 626 million yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of 1.859 billion yuan, a 3.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 289 million yuan, reflecting a 21.4% growth [1]. - The company is optimistic about the fourth quarter, anticipating growth driven by early Chinese New Year festivities and increased investment in high-end and cost-effective gift boxes [2]. Revenue and Profit Trends - The company experienced a revenue decline of 20.25% in Q2, but has shown recovery in July and August, with September's performance impacted by weak demand for gift boxes [2]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.503 billion, 8.325 billion, and 9.114 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.25%, 10.96%, and 9.48% [4][9]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.25%, an increase of 4.82 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 33.31%, up 6.31 percentage points [4]. - The increase in gross margin is attributed to lower procurement costs for sunflower seeds, although there may be short-term upward pressure on prices due to weather conditions [4]. Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on channel penetration in lower-tier cities and towns, with significant sales growth in Sam's Club and bulk retail channels, which are expected to drive future growth [3]. - Sales in the bulk snack channel reached nearly 200 million yuan in 2023, with strong performance in August and September [3]. Product and Market Positioning - The company produces a variety of snack products, including sunflower seeds and nuts, and has been recognized as one of the "2023 Asia's Top 500 Brands" with a brand value of 46.868 billion yuan [5].