昇兴股份：24Q3业绩维持韧性，海外产能持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.995 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.43%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 344 million yuan, an increase of 24.77% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.774 billion yuan, down 2.98% year-on-year but up 14.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, down 6.27% year-on-year and 1.7% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its customer structure and improving capacity utilization through deeper cooperation with major clients, which is expected to stabilize revenue from its three-piece can business [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin was 14.34%, up 2.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.01%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 13.66%, down 0.01 percentage points year-on-year and down 1.81 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with a net margin of 6.25%, down 0.28 percentage points year-on-year and down 1.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.274 billion yuan, 7.810 billion yuan, and 8.186 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 7%, and 5% [4][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 423 million yuan, 551 million yuan, and 617 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 27%, 30%, and 12% respectively [4][7]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12x for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation given the stability in the three-piece can business and the potential recovery in profitability for the two-piece can segment [4][5].