NOVEL OPTICS(603297) 中国银河·2024-10-31 06:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook with expected outperformance relative to the benchmark index [4][7] Core Views - The company reported steady revenue growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.62% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.28% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a one-time land compensation payment in the same period last year [3] - The company's microscope business is expected to benefit significantly from national equipment renewal policies, particularly in education, culture, and healthcare sectors [4] - The company is a national champion in optical microscope manufacturing, positioning it well to capitalize on the equipment renewal trend [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.54%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.28% [3] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 39.36%, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points, while net margin was 18.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.93 percentage points [3] - The company is forecasted to achieve revenue of 9.37 billion yuan in 2024, 12.76 billion yuan in 2025, and 16.92 billion yuan in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 36%, and 33% respectively [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow to 2.38 billion yuan in 2024, 3.21 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.24 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 1%, 35%, and 32% [4][6] Business Outlook - The company's scientific instruments business is expected to benefit from domestic substitution and equipment renewal policies, offering significant growth potential [4] - The core optical components business has established relationships with leading clients in various niche markets, with the laser radar segment showing promising growth prospects [4] - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 25 times in 2024 to 14 times in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [4][6] Financial Projections - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 40% from 2024 to 2026 [6] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 11.54% in 2024 to 15.10% in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [12] - EPS is projected to grow from 2.14 yuan in 2024 to 3.82 yuan in 2026 [6][12]