青岛啤酒：收入端承压，成本端改善，盈利水平维持稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, indicating a projected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][10]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue decline of 6.52% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 28.959 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 1.67% to 4.99 billion yuan [1]. - The company has experienced a significant improvement in cost management, with a decrease in the cost per ton of beer by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing to a stable profit level despite revenue pressures [2]. - The report highlights the company's strategy to enhance market promotion efforts, which has led to an increase in sales expenses, yet the gross margin improved to 41.76% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, Qingdao Beer sold 6.785 million tons of beer, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,268.24 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% [2]. - The main brand, Qingdao Beer, accounted for 56.52% of total sales, with a volume of 3.835 million tons, down 6.23% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 17.72%, up 1.58 percentage points from the previous year, despite increased sales expenses [2]. Financial Forecasts - The report revises the profit forecasts for Qingdao Beer, projecting net profits of 4.359 billion yuan, 5.028 billion yuan, and 5.605 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [3][4]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is adjusted to 31.714 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7% compared to previous estimates [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides key financial metrics, including a projected EPS of 3.20 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 21 [3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 50.576 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt ratio of 39.11% [4][6].