2024年10月PMI数据点评：一揽子增量政策带动宏观经济景气度显著回升

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In October 2024, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after five months[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October was 50.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - A large-scale package of incremental policies has significantly boosted market confidence and economic performance, leading to a notable increase in the manufacturing PMI[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI surged by 0.8 percentage points to 52.0%, the highest level in nearly six months[2] - The new orders index reached the balance line of 50%, the highest level in six months, driven by improved expectations and increased sales in durable consumer goods[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The construction business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal effects from the National Day holiday[6] - The service sector PMI was 50.1%, reflecting a recovery in business activity and new orders, with indices above 60% indicating strong confidence in the capital market[5] - The new export orders index fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating potential short-term downward pressure on exports[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The fourth quarter GDP growth is expected to reach approximately 5.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the third quarter, aligning with the annual target of around 5.0%[6] - The ability of the macro economy to escape downward pressure hinges on the stabilization of the real estate market and potential impacts from the upcoming U.S. election results[7]