AIA(01299) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 07:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.6% (actual exchange rate) / 22% (fixed exchange rate), meeting expectations. The growth was driven by improvements in both new business and value rates, with core channels maintaining good performance [2][7]. - The diversified product strategy is expected to enhance value growth momentum, addressing customer needs and regulatory guidance, which is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with interest spreads and improve profitability [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022A to 2026E, the company’s revenue is projected to grow from USD 19,110 million in 2022 to USD 22,470 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from USD 282 million in 2022 to USD 6,147 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 25.3% in 2024E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 328.94 in 2022 to 12.12 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [6]. Business Performance - The core regions of the business showed resilience, with NBV growth in mainland China at 9% and Hong Kong at 24%. The growth in Hong Kong was supported by local customers and mainland visitors, with agent and bancassurance channels performing well [7]. - The annualized new premium for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.1% (actual exchange rate) / 16% (fixed exchange rate), driven by both agent and partner distribution channels [7].