ZBOM(603801) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 07:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on profits in Q3 2024, with a steady growth in overseas business. The revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.68 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 270 million yuan, down 23.8% year-on-year. The company is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery following stimulus policies and continued growth in overseas markets [3][4]. Revenue Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue from wardrobes and cabinets faced pressure, while the door and wall categories maintained high growth. The revenue for kitchen cabinets, custom wardrobes, and wooden doors was 1.662 billion yuan, 1.504 billion yuan, and 240 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.2%, -10.2%, and +0.5% [4]. - Revenue by channel showed that direct sales, distribution, bulk business, and overseas revenue were 253 million yuan, 1.917 billion yuan, 1.105 billion yuan, and 131 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -16.25%, -11.81%, +0.95%, and +35.24% respectively [4]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 36.8%, down 1.6 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.2%, down 1.6 percentage points. The increase in selling expenses was attributed to the company's efforts to capture market share [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 30 million yuan, showing improvement compared to the first half of the year [5]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 506 million yuan, 544 million yuan, and 623 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.16 yuan, 1.25 yuan, and 1.43 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12.5, 11.6, and 10.2 times for the respective years [3][6].