斯达半导：三季度业绩环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 112.4, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of CNY 97.2 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's third-quarter performance showed improvement compared to the low point in the second quarter, driven by stable demand in the industrial control sector and rapid growth in automotive-related revenue. The photovoltaic sector also began to recover from earlier lows [2][8]. - The silicon carbide (SiC) business is progressing steadily, with expectations of doubling revenue compared to last year. The increasing penetration of new energy vehicles is anticipated to sustain high growth in the company's automotive main drive modules [2][7]. - Despite significant price pressures in the automotive sector, the company is expected to stabilize and potentially increase its gross margin through various cost-reduction measures and product mix upgrades [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 880 million, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21%. The gross margin was 32.0%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][8]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 149 million, reflecting a 35% year-on-year decline but a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase. The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, also showed a similar trend [2][8]. - The company’s forward P/E ratio is currently at 26.2x, which is below the historical average, suggesting room for valuation upside [2][12]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with expected revenues of CNY 3,342 million and CNY 4,089 million respectively, reflecting a 23% decrease from previous estimates [2][7]. - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at CNY 1,065 million, with a gross margin of 31.9%, and net profit is expected to be CNY 596 million, indicating a 46% increase from prior forecasts [2][7]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a risk-free rate of 2.2% and a WACC of 13.5%. The target price of CNY 112.4 corresponds to a P/E of 32.3x for 2024 and 25.1x for 2025 [2][9][10]. - The company’s free cash flow projections indicate a significant increase in revenue and operating profit over the next several years, with a long-term growth rate assumption of 3% [2][9].