PMI点评（2024.10）：预期先于需求改善，PMI重回景气区间

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.3 to 50.1 in October, marking a return to the expansion zone after six months[1] - The production index increased significantly by 0.8 to 52.0, with industries like black and non-ferrous metals, automotive, and electrical machinery showing high confidence above 57[1] - New export orders index fell by 0.2 to 47.3, the lowest in nearly eight months, limiting the overall improvement in new orders[1] Group 2: Policy Impact and Economic Outlook - Recent monetary and fiscal policy measures have boosted corporate confidence, leading to a notable recovery in production indices[1] - The inventory index for finished goods dropped significantly by 1.5 to 46.9, indicating a cautious outlook from enterprises regarding demand[1] - The ongoing deep adjustment in the real estate market and accelerated resolution of local debt risks continue to suppress consumption and investment demand[1] Group 3: Service and Construction PMI - The service sector PMI slightly increased by 0.2 to 50.1, reflecting stable growth in service consumption[1] - The construction PMI fell by 0.3 to 50.4, indicating historical lows due to the contraction in real estate investment activities[1] - The construction expectations index rose by 2.1 to 55.2, suggesting improved confidence among construction firms due to new debt replacement policies[1] Group 4: Future Projections - The improvement in domestic demand is expected to be gradual rather than immediate, influenced by structural economic adjustments[1] - The central government's budget deficit rate for 2025 is projected to reach around 4.2%, with the initiation of long-term special bonds for state-owned banks remaining unchanged[1] - The forecast for a passive 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by December remains unchanged, with no further cuts expected in the LPR for the year[1]