从美国困境看全球经济及中国应对策略：攻守切换

Core Views - The main differences between the Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S. revolve around globalization and de-globalization, leading to three potential scenarios for the U.S. economy and China's response [2] - If globalization continues in the U.S., overseas inflation may remain strong, and China could accelerate its recovery [2] - In the case of aggressive de-globalization, U.S. inflation may rise, prompting China to stimulate its economy and potentially restart its debt cycle, while also speeding up its globalization process [2] - A moderate de-globalization scenario could lead to a thawing of U.S.-China relations, but overall external demand may remain weak, resulting in a slower recovery for China [2] Asset Performance and Trading Strategies - Democratic globalization corresponds to "overseas re-inflation + Chinese recovery" trading; the U.S. dollar weakens, U.S. Treasury bonds fluctuate, the Dow Jones strengthens, commodities rise, and A-shares should focus on manufacturing and consumption [2] - Republican aggressive de-globalization corresponds to "expanding domestic demand + high-end manufacturing globalization" trading; the U.S. dollar rises then falls, U.S. Treasury bonds rise, the Dow Jones is strong while the NASDAQ is weak, gold strengthens, and A-shares should focus on real estate consumption and high-end manufacturing, with industrial products declining and gold rising [2] - Republican moderate de-globalization corresponds to "debt management + core assets" trading; the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds fluctuate, U.S. stocks rise, and A-shares should focus on consumer electronics, photovoltaic lithium batteries, with industrial products fluctuating and gold declining [2] U.S. Election Disturbances - The Republican party's policies are expected to lead to de-globalization, rising household income, and inflation in the service sector and commodities [8] - The Democratic party's policies are expected to promote globalization, with a focus on cooperation with allies and continued support for Ukraine, which could lead to a looser monetary policy [46] Trade Dynamics - The increase in tariffs has not significantly reduced the overall U.S. trade deficit but has shifted direct trade away from China to other countries [11] - The U.S. has increased imports from regions like Mexico and the EU during the China-U.S. trade friction, slowing down imports from China [18] Labor Market and Inflation - The presence of illegal immigrants in the U.S. has provided a significant supply of low-end labor, which has alleviated inflationary pressures in the service sector; their removal could lead to increased service sector inflation [27] - The rising costs associated with tariffs have been largely passed on to U.S. consumers, leading to higher prices without significantly boosting domestic production [20] Real Estate Market - The impact of declining interest rates on the real estate market has weakened, indicating that income factors are becoming more influential on housing demand [29] - The income growth of middle and low-income groups is stabilizing, which could support housing prices and lead to upward pressure on housing inflation [35]