YINGJIA DISTILLERY(603198)2024-10-31 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to weaker-than-expected performance in Q3 2024 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.513 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.006 billion yuan, up 20.19% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.711 billion yuan, a growth of 2.32% year-on-year, while the net profit was 625 million yuan, growing by 2.86% year-on-year, indicating that both revenue and profit were below expectations [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.513 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.006 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 13.81% and 20.19% [4]. - The Q3 2024 results showed a revenue of 1.711 billion yuan and a net profit of 625 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.32% and 2.86% respectively [4][5]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 2.738 billion yuan, 3.222 billion yuan, and 3.712 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.7%, 17.7%, and 15.2% respectively [4][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining healthy growth despite weak demand in the liquor market, opting not to push inventory aggressively. The domestic market performance is stronger than the external market [5]. - The company’s product differentiation and strong channel push are seen as advantages in gaining market share, with significant growth potential in product structure upgrades [4][5]. Financial Ratios - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 36.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an improvement in gross margin, which reached 75.8% [5]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 690 million yuan, slightly lower than the previous year's 760 million yuan, indicating slower cash flow growth compared to revenue growth [6]. Future Growth Drivers - The core growth drivers for the next three years are expected to be the upgrade and expansion of the company's premium product lines, particularly the "洞藏" series, which is anticipated to continue its strong growth trajectory [4][5].