青岛啤酒：旺季销量承压，期待Q4环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.99 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 saw a revenue decline of 5.3% year-on-year to 8.89 billion yuan, with a net profit decrease of 9.0% to 1.35 billion yuan [1][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, the company sold 2.16 million tons of beer, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year. The overall beer production in China also fell by 5.3% during the same period, attributed to weak consumer spending and adverse weather conditions. The Qingdao brand performed better than other brands, with sales of 1.23 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year, while other brands saw a 6.3% decline [2] Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton of beer in Q3 2024 was 2,388 yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 42.1%. However, the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.8% due to increased sales expenses [3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that with the resolution of weather disruptions and gradual improvement in consumer spending, Q4 2024 is expected to see a recovery in beer sales growth. The report anticipates a narrowing of losses in Q4 due to potential cost optimization [3][4] Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 4.46 billion, 4.95 billion, and 5.43 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 11.0%, and 9.7% [4][7]