中国中铁：Q3业绩持续承压，现金流有所改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway (601390.SH) [4][5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance continues to be under pressure, with a revenue decline of 7.3% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 820.3 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.6 billion yuan, down 14.3% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a decrease in the gross margin of the infrastructure business, although the cash flow situation has shown some improvement [1][2]. - New contract signings have decreased by 15% year-on-year, but the company has a strong backlog of projects, with an uncompleted contract amount of 6.3253 trillion yuan, which is 5.0 times its 2023 revenue, providing strong support for future income [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 820.3 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues of 265.6 billion, 278.9 billion, and 275.8 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 3%, 12%, and 6% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 9.0%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 showing a 0.8 percentage point decline [2]. - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 71.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters, an increase in outflow of 37.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year, but Q3 saw a reduced outflow of 1.93 billion yuan, down 1.83 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. Order Book and Future Outlook - The company signed new contracts worth 1.5279 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, with Q3 also seeing a 15% decline [3]. - The backlog of uncompleted contracts at the end of Q3 2024 was 6.3253 trillion yuan, up 7.6% from the end of 2023, indicating a robust project reserve [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 29.8 billion, 29.9 billion, and 30.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.20, 1.21, and 1.22 yuan per share [4].