食品饮料行业10月月报：重拾跌势，反弹证伪，估值回落

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% and 10% relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 9.22%, reversing the brief rebound seen in September. The sector has cumulatively dropped 4.13% from January to October 2024, with most sub-sectors, except for soft drinks, beer, dairy, and snacks, showing declines [1][2][3]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector as of October 30, 2024, stands at 18.46 times earnings, a decrease of 63.43% from the peak in 2020 and down 9.81% from the end of September 2024. This valuation is lower than 18 other sectors and higher than 12 sectors, indicating a shift towards cyclical sectors like banking and oil [1][7][9]. - The investment in fixed assets in the domestic food manufacturing industry increased by 23.5% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with the beverage and tea manufacturing sector growing by 20.1% [1][13]. - The report suggests focusing on emerging categories such as health products, soft drinks, baked goods, snacks, and other alcoholic beverages for investment opportunities in 2024. Additionally, the yeast sector is recommended due to recovering profit margins from falling molasses prices [1][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a cumulative decline of 4.13% from January to October 2024, while the CSI 300 rose by 14.86% during the same period [2][5]. - The sector's performance in October 2024 saw significant declines in sub-sectors like white wine, beer, and pre-packaged foods, with respective drops of 11.03%, 11.89%, and 9.42% [2][3]. Valuation - As of October 30, 2024, the food and beverage sector's static P/E ratio is 18.46, reflecting a significant drop from historical highs and indicating a valuation trend aligning more closely with cyclical industries [7][9]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investments in the food manufacturing sector showed robust growth, with a 23.5% year-on-year increase from January to September 2024, indicating a positive trend in industry investment [13][19]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on innovative market segments and suggests specific stocks for investment, including health products and yeast processing companies [28][29].