老白干酒：24Q3点评：增速有所放缓，结构延续升级

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 4.088 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.29%, with a net profit of 556 million, up 33% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.618 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, while net profit for Q3 reached 252 million, a growth of 25.17% [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with projected net profits of 846 million, 1.001 billion, and 1.161 billion respectively, representing growth rates of 27%, 18%, and 16% [5][8]. - The company benefits from product differentiation, competitive pricing, and strong channel relationships, particularly in the Hebei province, which has room for upgrades. The Wuling liquor market in Hunan is also showing steady growth potential [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 20.39 yuan - Market capitalization: 18,438 million yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2024-2026 is projected at 22x, 19x, and 16x respectively [2][5]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 operating revenue was 1.618 billion, with a net profit of 252 million. The overall revenue for the first three quarters was 4.088 billion, with a net profit of 556 million [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 66.77%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2024 revenue from white liquor was 1.61 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan was 790 million, up 9.9%, while those priced at or below 100 yuan generated 820 million, a growth of 2.3% [6][7]. - Regional performance showed that Hebei revenue was 910 million, growing 1.6%, while Hunan revenue reached 340 million, up 18.2% [6][7]. Future Projections - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 5.807 billion in 2024, 6.372 billion in 2025, and 6.937 billion in 2026 [8][10].