Pangang (000629) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 09:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.35 yuan, down from the previous target of 4.20 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 declined significantly due to falling vanadium prices, with revenue dropping by 6.12% YoY to 10.474 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders plummeting by 78.92% YoY to 183 million yuan [9] - Despite the decline in vanadium prices, the company's production remained stable, with vanadium and titanium product output holding steady [2] - The report expects the company's performance to gradually recover as downstream demand improves [2] Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2024 was 68 million yuan, 69 million yuan, and 46 million yuan respectively, showing a further decline in Q3 [9] - The report revised down the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 to 215 million yuan and 435 million yuan, respectively, and introduced a 2026 forecast of 583 million yuan [9] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.02 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.06 yuan, respectively [9] Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company sold 25,700 tons of vanadium products, up 6.02% YoY, while titanium slag and titanium dioxide sales were 98,800 tons and 128,600 tons, down 7.13% and 2.35% YoY, respectively [9] - The average selling price of vanadium products in H1 2024 was 83,000 yuan/ton, down 29% YoY, leading to a 25% decline in vanadium product revenue [9] Industry and Market Trends - The oversupply of vanadium products in 2024, driven by declining demand from the rebar sector, has pressured prices and dragged down the company's profits [9] - The titanium sector showed stable profitability, with titanium slag and titanium dioxide revenues increasing by 6.01% and 23.1% YoY in H1 2024, respectively [9] - The vanadium battery industry is steadily developing, with the company supplying over 16,000 tons of high-quality raw materials for vanadium electrolyte production as of Q3 2024 [9] Valuation and Comparables - The company is valued at 2.5x PB for 2024, slightly below the industry average of 2.56x PB, based on comparable companies such as Oriental Tantalum and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [12][13] - The company's current price is 2.86 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 2.24-3.62 yuan and a market capitalization of 26.584 billion yuan [5]