Orient Securities(SH:600958) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-31 09:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with self-operated investment yield improving. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were CNY 141 billion and CNY 33 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3% and 16%. The net profit for the third quarter was CNY 12 billion, up 25% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations. The annualized weighted average ROE was 5.55%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - The company has adjusted its market transaction volume and self-operated yield assumptions, raising the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to CNY 47 billion, CNY 54 billion, and CNY 61 billion, respectively, which corresponds to year-on-year growth of 70%, 16%, and 13%. The EPS for these years is projected to be CNY 0.6, CNY 0.6, and CNY 0.7 [2][3] - The company possesses two major asset management brands, Dongfang Asset Management and Huitianfu, and is deepening its wealth management transformation, which provides a differentiated advantage. The reduction in fund product fees and the implementation of public fund commission reduction policies are expected to optimize channel fees [2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total revenue was CNY 19,481 million, with a year-on-year increase of 14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 4,683 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70% [3] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 16.1% in 2023 to 25.5% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to rise from 16.1% in 2023 to 24.0% in 2024 [3] - The company's financial assets totaled CNY 1,183 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 1.1, 1.0, and 0.8 for 2024-2026 [2][4]