Guoxin Securities·2024-10-31 09:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have turned to positive year-on-year growth, indicating a continuous recovery in performance. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 478.35 billion yuan (YoY, +1.64%), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 175.76 billion yuan (YoY, +0.52%) [1] - The company's total assets grew steadily, reaching 34.07 trillion yuan by the end of September, a year-on-year increase of 7.25%. Loans increased by 8.55% to 21.44 trillion yuan [2] - Non-interest income saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.99% to 142.35 billion yuan, driven by a remarkable rise in investment income [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 161.27 billion yuan (YoY, +6.51%) and a net profit of 57.16 billion yuan (YoY, +4.38%). The annualized weighted average ROE for the first three quarters was 9.55%, showing stable profitability [1] Asset Growth - As of September, the company’s total assets increased by 7.25% year-on-year to 34.07 trillion yuan, with loans growing by 8.55% to 21.44 trillion yuan. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio rose by 0.20 percentage points to 12.23% compared to June [2] Interest Income - The average net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.41%, down 23 basis points year-on-year. Net interest income decreased by 4.81% to 335.99 billion yuan [2] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income increased significantly by 20.99% to 142.35 billion yuan, with other non-interest income rising by 49.88% to 81.66 billion yuan, benefiting from high investment returns [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio was 1.26% at the end of Q3, slightly up from the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio was 198.86%, down 2.83 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Profit Forecast - The company’s profit forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 233.7 billion yuan, 237.5 billion yuan, and 247.4 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 1.6%, and 4.2% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 5.9, 5.8, and 5.6 times, and a PB of 0.55, 0.51, and 0.48 times [3]