Haitong Securities·2024-10-31 09:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - BYD's Q3 2024 report shows a revenue of 502.3 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.2 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue reached 201.1 billion yuan, a 24% increase year-on-year and a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company has seen a steady increase in market share, achieving an 18.3% market share in Q3 2024, up 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, with total vehicle sales of 2.736 million units in the first three quarters, a 32% increase year-on-year [4][6] - The launch of the fifth-generation DM technology is expected to drive a new vehicle cycle, with significant upgrades in core components and improved fuel efficiency [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, BYD's sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 4.8%, 2.3%, and 6.8% respectively, showing slight increases year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.0%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 765.1 billion yuan, 918.8 billion yuan, and 1,103.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 38.3 billion yuan, 53.5 billion yuan, and 72.6 billion yuan for the same years [7][10] Market Position and Growth - BYD's new vehicle sales are expected to reach approximately 3.93 million units in 2024, representing a 30% year-on-year increase. The company is positioned as a leading player in the new energy vehicle sector [7][10] - The fifth-generation DM technology is anticipated to enhance the competitive edge of BYD's new vehicles, contributing to further sales growth [6][7] Valuation - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23, 17, and 12 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The reasonable value range for the stock is estimated to be between 315.89 yuan and 329.05 yuan [7][10]