李子园：公司季报点评：单三季度收入开始复苏，电商渠道继续亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 showed a recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, reaching RMB 385 million [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 2024 increased by 13.91% year-on-year, reaching RMB 62.12 million [6] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 improved significantly, rising by 5.24 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a 19.79% increase in gross profit [7] - The e-commerce channel performed exceptionally well, with revenue increasing by 107.88% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 1.064 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.48% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 157 million, a year-on-year decrease of 16.83% [6] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs [7] - The company's e-commerce channel revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 surged by 92.68% year-on-year, reaching RMB 59 million [8] Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, the East China region saw a revenue increase of 4.86% year-on-year, reaching RMB 195 million [8] - The Southwest region also showed growth, with revenue increasing by 0.78% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching RMB 71 million [8] - The Central China and South China regions experienced declines, with revenues decreasing by 5.97% and 5.24% year-on-year, respectively [8] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 1.438 billion, RMB 1.553 billion, and RMB 1.679 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 237 million, RMB 263 million, and RMB 283 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be RMB 0.60, RMB 0.67, and RMB 0.72 per share, respectively [9] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 37.3% from 2025 onwards [10] Valuation - The company is given a PE valuation range of 20-25 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of RMB 12.00-15.00 per share [9] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is 37.75 times, excluding companies without data [12] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 36.8%, up from 35.8% in 2023 [10] - The net profit margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 16.5%, slightly down from 16.8% in 2023 [10] - The ROE for 2024 is projected to be 13.5%, with a gradual increase to 15.2% by 2026 [10] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from RMB 2.901 billion in 2024 to RMB 3.089 billion in 2026 [14]