HTSC(601688) EBSCN·2024-10-31 09:48Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for A-shares and a "Buy" rating for H-shares [1][7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery in performance, with self-operated business contributing to revenue growth [3][4]. - The brokerage business continues to face pressure, while net interest income has increased significantly [4]. - Investment banking revenue has declined sharply, but there are signs of recovery in Q3 [5][6]. - The self-operated income has increased significantly, while asset management revenue remains under pressure [6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 314.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 125.2 billion yuan, up 30.6% year-on-year [3]. - Q3 alone saw a revenue of 139.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.4% [3]. Brokerage and Credit Business - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 9,210 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year. The company's brokerage net income was 39.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.3% year-on-year [4]. - The credit business saw net interest income increase by 52.0% year-on-year to 13.0 billion yuan [4]. Investment Banking - The number of IPOs and the amount raised in the A-share market dropped significantly, with the company’s investment banking net income down 40.8% year-on-year to 13.6 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s market share in IPO fundraising was 13.0%, an increase of 8.3 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Self-Operated and Asset Management - The self-operated business revenue increased by 39.2% year-on-year to 136.5 billion yuan, with Q3 showing a remarkable increase of 221.9% year-on-year [6]. - Asset management revenue decreased by 3.7% year-on-year to 30.3 billion yuan, impacted by public fund fee reforms [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from capital market reforms, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being 146.0 billion yuan, 153.7 billion yuan, and 164.7 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The corresponding EPS for these years is forecasted to be 1.62 yuan, 1.70 yuan, and 1.82 yuan, with respective P/E ratios for A-shares being 10.76, 10.23, and 9.54 [7].