CMOC(SH:603993) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-31 10:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 17.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 154.75 billion yuan [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 238.6% year-on-year, amounting to 8.27 billion yuan for the same period [3] - The copper production exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 78.2%, and sales increased by 160.98% [4] - The company is entering a capacity release phase, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 expected to be 11.31 billion, 13.96 billion, and 16.70 billion yuan respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 172.99 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 203.09 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 9% [1] - Net profit for 2022 was 6.07 billion yuan, expected to rise to 11.31 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 37% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 0.52 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.3 in 2023 to 14.8 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1] Production and Pricing Insights - The average price of copper on the LME for the first three quarters of 2024 was $9,156 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.72% [4][11] - The average price of tungsten (APT) increased by 11.78% year-on-year, reaching 200,000 yuan per ton [4][11] - The company’s copper production is projected to exceed initial guidance of 520,000 to 570,000 tons for the year [4] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to become a leading global resource enterprise, with plans to achieve annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons over the next five years [4][6] - The company has secured a long-term power supply agreement for a 200 MW hydropower station, which will support its production capacity expansion [6]