报喜鸟：Q3降幅扩大，期待哈吉斯新店发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million yuan, down 25.2% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.06 billion yuan, a decline of 11.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 70 million yuan, down 51.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the pressure from the declining consumption in the mid-to-high-end market [4][5]. - The company has a total of 1,772 stores as of the first half of 2024, with a net increase of 11 stores compared to the end of 2023, including 10 new stores for the brand Haggis, which is expected to drive brand growth [5]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 65.8%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 11.7%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in gross margin was attributed to strict discount control, while the rise in sales expense ratio negatively impacted the net profit margin [6]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Due to changes in consumer sentiment and a high base from the previous year, the company has faced growth pressures since Q2. The profit forecast has been revised downwards, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 580 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 730 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x [6][7].