中国中铁：Q3收入业绩承压，新兴业务快速成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue pressure in Q3, with a year-on-year decline of 6.22%, while emerging businesses are growing rapidly. The backlog of uncompleted contracts stands at 63,252.6 billion yuan, which is 5.01 times the revenue scale of the previous year, providing support for future revenue growth [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards due to underperformance, now predicting 31.1 billion, 31.9 billion, and 32.4 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The report highlights the potential for operational improvements and enhanced financial quality due to state-owned enterprise reforms, alongside the growth of the mineral resources sector as a second growth curve [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 818.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.57 billion yuan, down 14.33% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 8.8%, a decline of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 alone showing a gross margin of 8.72%, down 0.85 percentage points [3]. - The company’s cash flow from operations showed a net outflow of 71.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters, which is an increase in outflow compared to the previous year, although the outflow narrowed in Q3 [3]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development for the first three quarters was 713.2 billion, 12.9 billion, 19.8 billion, and 21.9 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 7.66%, 4.08%, 1.08%, and 13.22% [2]. - New contracts signed in the first three quarters totaled 15,278.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.2% year-on-year, with domestic and international contracts at 14,046.3 billion and 1,232.3 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - Emerging businesses saw new contracts worth 2,110.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.4% year-on-year, particularly in sectors like water conservancy, clean energy, and urban operations [2].