Shenzhen Manst Technology (301325) 东吴证券·2024-10-31 10:21Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 performance fell short of expectations with a significant decline in profitability [2] - Coating business revenue decreased by 25% YoY, while intelligent equipment revenue grew by 30-40% [2] - Energy storage revenue accounted for 60% of total revenue, contributing 1.5 billion yuan annually [2] - The company is expanding into the pan-semiconductor sector, with potential growth opportunities in panels, perovskite, and semiconductors [3] - R&D expenses increased by 113% YoY, with capital expenditures rising by 468% [3] - Downstream demand is weaker than expected, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q1-3 revenue: 1.03 billion yuan, up 84% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-3 net profit: 60 million yuan, down 74% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 revenue: 680 million yuan, up 217% YoY and 306% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit: -10 million yuan, turning negative YoY and QoQ [2] - Gross margin in Q3: 13.4%, down 53.8 pct YoY and 43.5 pct QoQ [2] Coating Business - 2024 Q1-3 coating business revenue: 410 million yuan, down 25% YoY [2] - Core components revenue: 200-250 million yuan, down 40-50% YoY [2] - Intelligent equipment revenue: 150-200 million yuan, up 30-40% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 coating business revenue: 90 million yuan, down 60% YoY [2] Energy Storage Business - 2024 Q1-3 energy storage revenue: 618 million yuan, accounting for 60% of total revenue [2] - 2024 Q3 energy storage revenue: 589 million yuan, accounting for 87% of total revenue [2] - Full-year energy storage revenue expected to reach 1.5 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 10-15% [2] R&D and Capital Expenditures - 2024 Q1-3 R&D expenses: 220 million yuan, up 113% YoY [3] - 2024 Q1-3 capital expenditures: 280 million yuan, up 468% YoY [3] - 2024 Q3 capital expenditures: 50 million yuan, up 64% YoY [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - 2024-2026 net profit forecast revised to 60/180/310 million yuan, down from previous estimates of 410/520/670 million yuan [4] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0.39/1.25/2.14 yuan [1] - 2024-2026 P/E ratio: 114/35/21x [4] Market Data - Closing price: 44.09 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 29.75/84.80 yuan [6] - P/B ratio: 2.16x [6] - Market cap: 6.34 billion yuan [6] Financial Projections Income Statement - 2024E revenue: 2.02 billion yuan, up 153.85% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue: 2.61 billion yuan, up 29.16% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue: 3.45 billion yuan, up 32.16% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit: 55.59 million yuan, down 83.72% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit: 180.34 million yuan, up 224.43% YoY [1] - 2026E net profit: 307.62 million yuan, up 70.58% YoY [1] Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets: 8.48 billion yuan, up from 3.73 billion yuan in 2023 [10] - 2024E total liabilities: 3.11 billion yuan, up from 744 million yuan in 2023 [10] - 2024E equity: 5.37 billion yuan, up from 2.99 billion yuan in 2023 [10] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow: 395 million yuan, up from -79 million yuan in 2023 [11] - 2024E capital expenditures: -142 million yuan, up from -108 million yuan in 2023 [11] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E ROE: 1.03%, down from 11.40% in 2023 [11] - 2024E ROIC: 1.59%, down from 16.75% in 2023 [11] - 2024E P/E ratio: 114.13x, up from 18.58x in 2023 [11]