CMSK(SZ:001979)2024-10-31 11:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving 78.009 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.88%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31% to 2.601 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share dropping by 43.59% to 0.22 yuan [2][5] - The decline in gross profit margin significantly impacted net profit, with a gross margin of 9.95% for the first three quarters of 2024, down 8.3 percentage points from the same period last year [2][5] - The company experienced a decrease in sales volume and price due to the overall industry downturn, with sales area dropping by 29.99% and sales amount decreasing by 35.85% [2][5] - The company has maintained high-quality land acquisition, with a land price of 14.27 billion yuan for 598,400 square meters, resulting in a land price per square meter of 23,846.44 yuan, which is higher than the average sales price [2][5] - Financial leverage is being strictly controlled, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.36% and a net debt ratio of 48.28% as of the end of the third quarter of 2024 [2][5] - The company successfully launched a public REIT for rental housing, raising a total of 1.3687 billion yuan [2][5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 6.718 billion yuan, 7.705 billion yuan, and 8.379 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 0.92 yuan [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175.008 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -4.37%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 185.035 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.73% [5][8] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 6.319 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of 48.20%. The forecast for 2024 is 6.718 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.30% [5][8] - The gross margin is projected to be 15.89% for 2023, decreasing to 14.98% in 2024 [5][8] Key Financial Ratios - The report provides key financial ratios, including a PE ratio of 15.76 for 2023, decreasing to 14.82 in 2024, and a PB ratio of 0.83 for 2023, slightly increasing to 0.84 in 2024 [5][8] - The report also highlights a projected ROE of 5.28% for 2023, increasing to 5.70% in 2024 [5][8]