GUOXIN MICRO(002049)2024-10-31 11:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.63 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 24.56%. Net profit was 10.16 billion yuan, down 49.91%, with attributable net profit of 10.10 billion yuan, down 50.27% [3]. - The demand for special circuits is under pressure, leading to a significant decline in gross margin. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 56.81%, a decrease of 10.98 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Research and development expenses remain high at 9.28 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 11.14% year-over-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 21.78%, an increase of 3.27 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Inventory and contract liabilities have decreased, indicating weak short-term growth momentum. Inventory balance was 20.34 billion yuan, down 19.1% from the beginning of the period, and contract liabilities were 2.48 billion yuan, down 67.8% [3]. - The company is continuously updating and iterating its products, enhancing its competitive advantage. It has completed the development of over ten series of special memory and is testing new automotive domain control chips [3]. - A new management team has been elected, which is expected to improve communication and strategic implementation within the company. A stock buyback of 600 million yuan was completed in 2023, and an employee incentive plan is being developed [3]. - The investment outlook is positive, with expectations of a recovery in the military industry in 2025 and the gradual formation of a second growth curve in automotive electronics. Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 14.79 billion yuan, 20.01 billion yuan, and 23.74 billion yuan, respectively [3][6]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is projected to be 75.65 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 59.35 billion yuan in 2024, then increasing to 71.57 billion yuan in 2025 and 82.25 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - Net profit is expected to decline from 25.31 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.79 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 20.01 billion yuan in 2025 and 23.74 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decrease from 61.19% in 2023 to 57.20% in 2024, stabilizing around 56.11% by 2026 [6]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 2.98 yuan in 2023, dropping to 1.74 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 2.36 yuan in 2025 and 2.79 yuan in 2026 [6]. - The PE ratio is expected to rise from 22.90 in 2023 to 39.19 in 2024, before decreasing to 28.96 in 2025 and 24.41 in 2026 [6].