青岛啤酒：投入增加，利润短期承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3]. Core Views - Despite fluctuations in profits during Q3, the long-term outlook for the beer industry remains clear and stable, with expectations for product structure upgrades in Shandong and North China, as well as profit improvements in East and South China, which are likely to provide good profit elasticity [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 28.959 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.990 billion yuan, an increase of 1.67% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.891 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a sluggish domestic beer market [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2024, the company’s revenue was 8.891 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, and sales volume decreased by 5.1% to 2.16 million kiloliters [1]. - The average revenue per kiloliter for Q3 2024 was 4,126 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 42.1% due to a decrease in operating costs [2]. Cost and Expenses - Operating costs for Q3 2024 decreased by 399 million yuan to 5.146 billion yuan, with the cost per ton of beer down by 2.2% to 2,388 yuan [2]. - Sales expenses increased by 14.3% year-on-year to 1.251 billion yuan, while management expenses decreased by 26.2% to 272 million yuan [2]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 3.13, 3.38, and 3.59 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 20, and 19 times based on the closing price of 67.13 yuan per share on October 31, 2024 [3].