社会服务行业·周观点：教育行业供给出清，格局优化+龙头修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate," indicating that the industry growth level is expected to be higher than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index over the next six months [44][45]. Core Insights - The education industry is entering a new development phase as supply clears and policies stabilize, with a focus on vocational education and cultural export opportunities [21][29]. - The cultural export sector, particularly in online literature, online games, and web dramas, is expected to benefit from China's cultural confidence and the promotion of traditional culture [31][34]. Market Performance Overview - The social services sector index increased by 4.43% this week, ranking 8th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance [1][17]. - Sub-industry performance showed significant gains, with tourism and scenic spots leading at 8.70%, followed by hotel and catering at 8.33%, and education at 7.85% [19][21]. - Notable individual stock performances included *ST Kaiyuan with a 32.49% increase and Xueda Education with a 16.07% decrease [19][21]. Industry Dynamics - The education sector has seen a reduction in private schools, with 16.72 million institutions remaining, a decrease of 11,092 from the previous year, indicating a significant industry cleanup [2][21]. - The vocational education sector is gaining momentum, supported by government policies aimed at integrating education with industry needs [28][29]. - The cultural export sector is experiencing rapid growth, with online literature revenue reaching 4.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.06% [31][34]. Investment Themes - Investment theme 1: The education industry is poised for recovery due to favorable policies, supply clearing, and the integration of AI [2][29]. - Investment theme 2: Cultural exports are accelerating, with online literature, online games, and web dramas leading the way [31][34]. Recommendations - Focus on companies in technology education and vocational education sectors, such as Shengtong Co., Kede Education, and Zhonggong Education [29][34].