Huachuang Securities·2024-10-31 12:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for CITIC Securities (600030) [1][2] Core Views - The Q3 performance of CITIC Securities meets expectations, with a significant improvement in quarterly proprietary return rate, indicating some elasticity in the proprietary business amid market conditions [1][2] - The report anticipates a recovery in performance across various business segments, although the earnings forecast has been adjusted downward due to market conditions not improving as expected [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue (excluding other business income) for Q3 was 41.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.3 billion yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.2% [1] - The proprietary return rate increased from 1.0% to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with net income from capital-intensive businesses totaling 22.58 billion yuan for the quarter, up 26.74 billion yuan [1] - The non-annualized net return rate for capital-intensive businesses was 2.2%, with a quarterly rate of 0.9%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business income totaled 21.66 billion yuan for the quarter, with a quarterly proprietary return rate of 1.3%, up 0.3 percentage points [1] - Interest income from credit business was 14.75 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 716 million yuan [1] - The balance of buyback financial assets was 40.8 billion yuan, down 15.32 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - Brokerage business revenue was 7.15 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.7% [1] - Investment banking revenue improved, totaling 2.82 billion yuan for the quarter, up 2.2 billion yuan [1] Financial Ratios and Projections - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 5.9% for the reporting period, with a quarterly ROE of 2.2%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2 percentage points [1] - The financial leverage ratio at the end of the reporting period was 4.3 times, an increase of 0.38 times year-on-year and 0.35 times quarter-on-quarter [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.47, 1.57, and 1.64 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 1.40, 1.33, and 1.33 times [2][3]