药明康德2024年三季报点评：在手订单高增，多肽业务持续放量

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [2][3] - Target price raised to 71.82 RMB (previously 52.96 RMB) [2][3] Core Views - Strong growth in backlog, with TIDES business contributing significantly to future growth [2] - Revenue for 2024 Q1-Q3 was 27.702 billion RMB (-6.23% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.533 billion RMB (-19.11% YoY) [2] - Q3 revenue was 10.461 billion RMB (-1.96% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.293 billion RMB (-17.02% YoY) [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 adjusted to 3.34/3.78/4.27 RMB, reflecting improved profitability from cost reductions and capacity utilization [2] Business Performance - Chemical business revenue grew 10.4% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3, excluding COVID-related commercial orders [2] - Testing business revenue declined 4.9% YoY, with clinical CRO and SMO revenue growing 3.4% and 16% respectively [2] - Biology business revenue declined 3.6% YoY, but new molecule types grew 6.0% [2] - High-end therapy CTDMO business revenue declined 17.0% YoY due to early-stage commercialization and project delays [2] - Backlog as of 2024 Q3 reached 43.82 billion RMB, up 35.2% YoY, with revenue from top 20 global pharmaceutical companies at 11.22 billion RMB [2] TIDES Business - TIDES business revenue grew 71.0% YoY in 2024 Q1-Q3, reaching 3.55 billion RMB [2] - Backlog for TIDES business increased 196% YoY, with D&M service customers growing 20% and molecules served growing 22% [2] - Capacity expansion expected, with solid-phase synthesis reactor volume projected to reach 41,000L by end of 2024 [2] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue forecast at 39.459 billion RMB (-2.2% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 9.638 billion RMB (+0.3% YoY) [8] - 2025E revenue forecast at 44.451 billion RMB (+12.7% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.905 billion RMB (+13.1% YoY) [8] - 2026E revenue forecast at 49.858 billion RMB (+12.2% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 12.336 billion RMB (+13.1% YoY) [8] - ROE expected to remain stable at around 16.3%-16.4% from 2024E to 2026E [8] Valuation and Market Data - Current price at 52.00 RMB, with a 52-week range of 36.87-90.88 RMB [4] - Market capitalization at 150.176 billion RMB, with 2.888 billion total shares and 2.501 billion A-shares outstanding [4] - P/E ratio for 2024E at 15.58x, with P/B ratio at 2.55x [8] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) with a 2024E P/E of 18.85x and Pharmaron (300759 SZ) with a 2024E P/E of 30.25x [10] - Average P/E for comparable companies in 2024E is 22.4x [10]