NCI(SH:601336) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-31 12:29Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 61.40 CNY per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 0.70 times [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.68 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 116.7%, driven by a resonance between assets and liabilities [2][3]. - The strong recovery in new business value (NBV) and significant improvement in investment income due to the recovery of the equity market are highlighted as key factors for profit enhancement [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of 20.68 billion CNY, with a quarterly net profit of 9.597 billion CNY in Q3, compared to a loss of 433 million CNY in the same period last year [2][3]. - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are maintained at 9.00, 9.54, and 10.28 CNY respectively [3]. New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV increased by 79.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with new policies growing by 11.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company experienced a significant increase in new policies in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 162.8%, attributed to strong customer demand for insurance savings [3]. Investment Performance - Total investment assets reached 1.6 trillion CNY, a 20.3% increase from the beginning of the year, benefiting from stable cash flow from premium sales [3]. - The annualized total investment return rate improved to 6.8%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Data - The stock price ranged from 27.92 to 51.73 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 149.769 billion CNY [4]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 29.18 CNY, with a current price-to-book ratio of 1.6 [5].