兴业银行：增提拨备化风险，优化结构见成效

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 164.2 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.0% to 63.0 billion yuan [7][8]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08% in Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 4.3 percentage points to 234% [7][12]. - The report highlights that the proactive provisioning for non-credit impairment losses has impacted profit growth negatively, but it lays a foundation for sustainable profitability [12]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected as follows: - 2024E: 222,374 - 2025E: 210,831 - 2026E: 212,152 [6] - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be: - 2024E: 0.51% - 2025E: 0.63% - 2026E: 3.31% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2024E: 91,377 million yuan - 2025E: 77,116 million yuan - 2026E: 76,111 million yuan [6] - The report indicates a decrease in the return on equity (ROE) from 13.85% in 2024E to 9.46% in 2026E [6]. Asset Quality and Loan Growth - The company’s credit asset quality is stable, with expectations that retail credit card risks have largely stabilized [12]. - Loan growth in Q3 2024 was 8%, with new loans totaling 72.5 billion yuan for the quarter [10]. - The report notes that the company has actively increased its allocation to bills to maintain stable loan growth amid weakening effective demand [10]. Non-Interest Income and Profitability - Non-interest income showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to revenue growth [8]. - Interest income continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, contributing 1.6 percentage points to revenue growth [8]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first nine months of 2024 was 1.63%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous period [10][16].