中国电建：Q3扣非净利润下滑36.5%，业绩同比压力Q4或有所缓解

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Views - The company's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.5%, with expectations for improvement in Q4 due to debt reduction measures [1] - The company reported a revenue of 425.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.81 billion, down 7.21% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates that the company's fundamentals will gradually recover as local government debt issuance space increases, allowing government investment projects to operate normally [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 425.67 billion, with a net profit of 8.81 billion and a non-recurring net profit of 7.92 billion, reflecting year-on-year declines of 7.21% and 14.41% respectively [1] - The Q3 revenue was 140.75 billion, with a net profit of 2.47 billion and a non-recurring net profit of 1.68 billion, showing declines of 9% and 36.47% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 12.42%, a slight increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 12.73% [2] Order and Project Insights - The company signed new contracts totaling 861.1 billion in the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with significant growth in energy and power contracts [4] - The report highlights that the company is actively engaging in BT and PPP models to alleviate debt pressure, particularly in municipal engineering and transportation sectors [3] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been revised down to 12.9 billion, 14.5 billion, and 16.6 billion respectively [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 609.41 billion in 2023 to 789.09 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12% [5][10]