CHALCO(601600) 国信证券·2024-10-31 12:49Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chalco (601600 SH) [1][3][14] Core Views - Chalco's Q3 2024 net profit declined QoQ due to cost increases, while main business production showed steady growth [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 7 76% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68 46% YoY [1][4] - Chalco's profitability adjusted QoQ, with continuous optimization of debt-to-asset ratio [1][7] - Aluminum and alumina production increased QoQ in Q3 2024 [1][10] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 173 78 billion yuan, down 7 76% YoY [1][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 9 017 billion yuan, up 68 46% YoY [1][4] - Q3 2024 revenue was 63 06 billion yuan, up 16 04% YoY and 2 10% QoQ [1][4] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 billion yuan, up 3 34% YoY but down 58 21% QoQ [1][4] Profitability - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin was 15 23%, up 5 70 percentage points YoY [1][7] - Q1-Q3 2024 net margin was 8 65%, up 4 48 percentage points YoY [1][7] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 11 67%, down 4 11 percentage points YoY and 7 11 percentage points QoQ [1][7] - Q3 2024 net margin was 5 93%, down 0 73 percentage points YoY and 5 80 percentage points QoQ [1][7] Production and Sales Alumina - Q1-Q3 2024 metallurgical alumina production was 12 57 million tons, up 0 88% YoY [1][10] - Q1-Q3 2024 fine alumina production was 3 25 million tons, up 14 84% YoY [1][10] - Q3 2024 metallurgical alumina production was 4 37 million tons, up 3 3% YoY and 10 6% QoQ [1][10] - Q3 2024 fine alumina production was 1 18 million tons, up 24 2% YoY and 9 3% QoQ [1][10] Aluminum - Q1-Q3 2024 primary aluminum production was 5 62 million tons, up 14 00% YoY [1][10] - Q1-Q3 2024 primary aluminum sales volume was 5 60 million tons, up 13 36% YoY [1][10] - Q3 2024 primary aluminum production was 1 99 million tons, up 6 4% YoY and 7 6% QoQ [1][10] - Q3 2024 primary aluminum sales volume was 2 01 million tons, up 6 9% YoY and 9 8% QoQ [1][10] Coal - Q1-Q3 2024 coal production was 9 74 million tons, up 0 52% YoY [1][10] - Q3 2024 coal production was 3 36 million tons, down 3 2% YoY and 4 0% QoQ [1][10] Subsidiaries Performance - Chalco New Materials (100% owned) achieved 695 million yuan net profit in Q3 2024 [1][7] - Yunnan Aluminium (29 1% owned) achieved 1 301 billion yuan net profit in Q3 2024 [1][7] - Combined net profit contribution from these subsidiaries was approximately 1 07 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [1][7][9] Financial Forecast - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 203 503/204 020/204 732 billion yuan [1][14] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 11 803/13 795/15 513 billion yuan [1][14] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0 69/0 80/0 90 yuan [1][14] - Current PE ratio: 11 2x/9 6x/8 5x for 2024-2026 [1][14] Industry Position - Chalco is a leading state-owned enterprise in the non-ferrous metals industry with a complete aluminum industry chain [14] - The company maintains certain capacity expansion capabilities despite industry capacity ceilings [14]