BioKangtai(300601) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-31 12:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][10][14] Core Views - The company's revenue improved quarter-on-quarter, but profit is under short-term pressure due to factors such as market destocking, increased stock incentive amortization expenses, and rising fixed asset depreciation costs [1][5] - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.018 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 351 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is actively promoting the commercialization of its new products, including the human diploid rabies vaccine and the varicella live attenuated vaccine, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2][10] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 452 million, 750 million, and 816 million yuan respectively, with Q3 showing a positive year-on-year growth of 11.2% [1][5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 83.4%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] - The overall expense ratio for the period was 61.7%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year, but is expected to improve as revenue scales recover [2][8] Product Development and Internationalization - The company has made significant progress in the commercialization of its human diploid rabies vaccine, which was approved for sale in September 2023, generating sales of 117 million yuan by June 2024 [2][10] - The company is also advancing the varicella live attenuated vaccine, which received its drug registration certificate in April 2024 [2] - Internationally, the company has signed agency or technology transfer agreements for key products with partners in countries such as Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Yemen [2][10] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 3.034 billion, 3.879 billion, and 4.614 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 610 million, 807 million, and 997 million yuan [10][12] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 35, 26, and 21 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][12]