YILI(600887) 中国银河·2024-10-31 13:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 88.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.87 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% [2] - The company's proactive inventory control and channel adjustments have shown effectiveness, leading to a continuous improvement in profitability [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from industry supply-demand recovery, with a potential stabilization of milk prices by 2025 and supportive government policies to boost demand [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.04 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to declining raw milk prices and price recovery after channel adjustments [3] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.5%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 118.09 billion yuan, 122.41 billion yuan, and 126.15 billion yuan, respectively, with expected revenue growth rates of -6.41%, 3.66%, and 3.06% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 11.86 billion yuan, 11.34 billion yuan, and 12.41 billion yuan, with profit growth rates of 13.77%, -4.42%, and 9.40% [5] - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 14, 15, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]