SGC(603269) 华源证券·2024-10-31 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in total profit, but the actual income tax rate surged, causing fluctuations in net profit. The revenue for the first three quarters reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 40.9488 million yuan, up 10.45% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 456 million yuan, a 40.97% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 15.03% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross profit margin has declined, with the first three quarters showing a margin of 23.88%, down 3.56 percentage points year-on-year. The third quarter's gross profit margin was 21.74%, down 4.61 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to project confirmation structure disturbances, with expectations for recovery in the fourth quarter [1] - The company has a substantial backlog of orders, totaling 3.743 billion yuan, approximately 2.7 times the company's total revenue for 2023, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [3] - The company is a domestic leader in cooling towers, focusing on nuclear power and liquid cooling domestic substitution, with significant growth potential in these areas [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 101.25 million yuan, 132.44 million yuan, and 166.38 million yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22X, 17X, and 13X based on the stock price as of October 30 [4] - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.685 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 22.04% [4] - The company’s total assets are estimated to reach 3.310 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 69.98% [2][6]