Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical (SZ:002749) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-31 13:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749.SZ) [1][3] Core Views - Guoguang Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.436 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 270 million yuan, up 21.18% year-on-year [1] - The decline in sales during Q3 is attributed to a delay in autumn fertilizer sales across the industry, with a significant drop in urea market prices leading to a cautious stance among downstream distributors [1] - The company is focusing on comprehensive solution marketing to meet diverse farmer needs, promoting solutions for both field crops and economic crops [1] - The company expects a rebound in revenue in Q4 due to the release of delayed orders and the winter wheat planting season [1] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 374 million, 465 million, and 579 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16x, 13x, and 10x [1] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 393 million yuan, a decrease of 0.43% year-on-year and a significant drop of 41.88% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 was 43.59%, an increase of 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower costs of raw materials and compound fertilizers [1] - The company has hosted multiple dealer exchange meetings, with cumulative customer intent to order exceeding 990,000 mu as of October 27, 2024 [1] - The financial forecast indicates a steady growth trajectory with revenue expected to reach 3.280 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 20.46% [4][5]