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央行月度数量操作点评(2024.10):5000亿买断式逆回购:投放以长代短,降低利率波动
Huajin Securities·2024-10-31 13:36

Group 1 - The report highlights the implementation of a 500 billion buyout reverse repurchase operation by the central bank, which serves as a direct replacement for short-term reverse repos, aiming to stabilize liquidity in commercial banks [1][3] - The new policy logic of using long-term instruments to replace short-term ones is expected to lower excess reserve ratios and enhance the efficiency of monetary and credit transmission [1][3] - The central bank's actions are seen as a response to the long-standing issue of insufficient long-term liquidity, with the aim of reducing reliance on high-cost MLF and improving the stability of medium to long-term monetary expectations [1][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the balance of reverse repos at the end of October was 1.68 trillion, which is approximately 1 trillion less than the same period last year, indicating a significant reduction in liquidity injection [1][3] - The introduction of multiple pricing methods has significantly weakened the policy attributes of interest rates, with the first announcement choosing not to disclose the operation interest rate level, which may become a norm [1][3] - The anticipated year-end M2 growth rate is expected to slightly decline to around 6.3%, reflecting a cooling demand for credit financing amid ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and the resolution of local hidden debts [1][3]