兰生股份：公允价值变动推升Q3利润，关注内生外延发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's Q3 profit surged significantly due to increased fair value gains from financial assets, despite a year-on-year revenue decline [3]. - The company is focusing on both internal growth and external investments, with plans to establish a subsidiary in Hong Kong to enhance its global presence [3]. - The company has increased its dividend frequency, distributing cash dividends to shareholders, which reflects a commitment to shareholder returns [3]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 342 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 120 million, an increase of 142.97% [3][4]. - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 932 million, down 3.29% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 202 million, down 16.53% year-on-year [3]. - The company plans to adjust its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 259 million, RMB 292 million, and RMB 321 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.5, 18.1, and 16.5 [3][4]. Business Operations - The company hosted 17 exhibitions and 9 events in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total area exceeding 1.01 million square meters and participation of over 33,000 people [3]. - The Shanghai World Expo Exhibition and Convention Center, operated by the company, hosted 65 events with a total rental area exceeding 8 million square meters [3]. - The company is actively investing in the artificial intelligence sector, with a commitment of RMB 50 million to establish a new company focused on AI-related services [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue growth is expected to stabilize, with projections for 2024-2026 showing slight increases in revenue and net profit [4][5]. - The report indicates a projected EBITDA of RMB 260 million for 2024, with a growth rate of -15.5% [4][5]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to be 2.6% for 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4].