中国黄金：2024年三季报点评：前三季度收入同比+13%，继续规划加盟渠道扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 465.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.73%. However, the revenue for Q3 2024 was 114.19 billion yuan, showing a decline of 2.78% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 7.46 billion yuan, up 0.64% year-on-year, while the net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.51 billion yuan, down 25.71% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to increase its direct stores by 2 and franchise stores by 179 in Q4 2024, indicating a steady channel expansion [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.20%, slightly down by 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.61%, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 621.22 billion yuan, 685.97 billion yuan, and 741.51 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.2%, 10.4%, and 8.1% [4][5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 10.15 billion yuan, 11.36 billion yuan, and 12.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 4.3%, 11.9%, and 11.0% [4][5]. Financial Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 15, 15, 13, and 12 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][8]. - The PB ratio is expected to be 2.0, 1.9, 1.9, and 1.8 for the same years [5][8]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to be 1.63%, 1.66%, and 1.70% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][8].