Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 19.85, corresponding to 1.05x PB for 2024 [4] Core Views - Light capital business pressure and exchange rate fluctuations have dragged down performance [3] - The company has long-term advantages in internationalization and specialization, benefiting from the construction of a world-class investment bank [3] - Revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 13.45 billion and RMB 2.86 billion, down 23.0% and 38.0% YoY respectively [4] - Q3 single-quarter profit was RMB 630 million, down 39.8% YoY [4] - Weighted average ROE decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 2.64% [4] - Adjusted revenue (operating income minus other business costs) declined due to contributions from wealth management/brokerage (-24%), investment banking (-14%), asset management (-3%), net interest (-9%), investment (+12%), and other business income (-62%) [4] - The decline in other business income was mainly due to a net exchange loss of RMB 90 million in the first three quarters, compared to a net exchange gain of RMB 2.06 billion in the same period last year [4] - The company's international and professional capabilities are expected to consolidate business advantages and build a world-class investment bank [4] - Wealth management business continues to improve asset allocation and investment advisory services, while investment banking business innovates fixed-income products and enhances M&A service capabilities [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 20.65 billion, with a YoY growth of 9.15% [7] - Net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 5.44 billion, with a YoY growth of 31.92% [7] - PE ratio for 2024E is 11.73, and PB ratio is 0.67 [7] Market Data - 52-week stock price range: HKD 7.87 to HKD 24.45 [5] - Current market capitalization: HKD 69.42 billion [5]
中金公司2024年三季报点评：轻资本业务承压及汇兑波动拖累业绩