Jordan Economic Monitor Strength Amidst Strain

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Jordanian economy or specific sectors within it. Core Insights - Jordan's economy demonstrated resilience in 2023, achieving a GDP growth of 2.7 percent, up from 2.6 percent in 2022, with broad-based growth across manufacturing, services, and agriculture [12][18] - The unemployment rate declined to 22.0 percent in 2023 from 22.8 percent in the previous year, with a stable rate of 21.4 percent in Q1-2024 [12][14] - Inflation decelerated significantly to 2.1 percent in 2023, down from an average of 4.2 percent in 2022, and is expected to remain contained in 2024 [12][14] - The current account deficit narrowed to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2023, down from 7.8 percent in 2022, supported by a surge in tourism receipts [12][14] - The fiscal deficit of the central government narrowed to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2023, aided by lower expenditure [12][14] Recent Economic Developments - Economic growth continued to decelerate due to the conflict in the Middle East, with real GDP growth slowing to 2.0 percent in Q1-2024 [12][18] - Manufacturing growth reached a record high, contributing significantly to GDP growth, while the services sector, particularly restaurants and hotels, also performed well [12][18] - Labor market outcomes remained weak, with labor force participation declining to 33.2 percent in 2023 [12][18] - The external sector improved markedly, with a notable increase in tourism receipts contributing to the narrowing of the current account deficit [12][14] Outlook and Risks - The medium-term outlook for Jordan's economy is weighed down by uncertainties surrounding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which could adversely impact trade and tourism [14][16] - Fiscal consolidation is expected to proceed slowly, with the primary fiscal deficit anticipated to narrow further in 2024 [12][14] - The report highlights potential risks to economic stability from broader disruptions due to the conflict, affecting trade, oil prices, and consumer behavior [14][16]