Minsheng Securities·2024-10-31 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD, with a target price based on the closing price of 293.19 CNY per share on October 31, 2024 [4]. Core Views - BYD's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 502.25 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 25.24 billion CNY, up 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end product launches and accelerating overseas expansion, with a projected revenue growth of 42.0% in 2024 and 38.4% in 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the strong profitability driven by cost reduction and the introduction of the Dm5.0 model, which has improved gross margins [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, BYD's revenue was 201.12 billion CNY, a 24.0% increase year-on-year and a 14.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.9%, with automotive gross margin at 25.6% [1][8]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 11.61 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase and a 28.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][9]. Sales and Production Insights - BYD sold 1.135 million vehicles in Q3 2024, a 37.7% increase year-on-year and a 15.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][6]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 2024 was 138,800 CNY, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [1][7]. - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of high-end models sold, which accounted for 3.9% of total sales in Q3 2024 [1][6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for BYD are set at 833.6 billion CNY for 2024, 1,017.0 billion CNY for 2025, and 1,214.3 billion CNY for 2026 [2][12]. - Net profit projections are 39.88 billion CNY for 2024, 55.44 billion CNY for 2025, and 65.61 billion CNY for 2026 [2][12]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS), projected at 13.71 CNY for 2024 and 19.05 CNY for 2025 [2][12].