EBSCN·2024-11-01 00:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of Postal Savings Bank, with current prices at 5.27 CNY and 4.52 HKD respectively [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Postal Savings Bank has solidified its position in retail banking, with revenue and profit growth returning to positive territory. For the first three quarters of 2024, the bank achieved operating income of 260.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75.8 billion CNY, up 0.2% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the bank's revenue, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders showed year-on-year growth rates of 0.1%, -1.8%, and 0.2% respectively, indicating improvements compared to the first half of 2024 [4]. - The main components of revenue include a 1.5% increase in net interest income year-on-year, while non-interest income decreased by 6% [4][8]. Asset and Loan Growth - The bank's loan growth is primarily driven by retail loans, which accounted for 40.3% of new loans in the first three quarters of 2024. The total loan increment was 630.5 billion CNY, with retail loans increasing by 254.2 billion CNY [5]. - As of the end of Q3 2024, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.9% and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively [5]. Deposit Growth - Postal Savings Bank maintained a high deposit growth rate, with total deposits increasing by 11.2% year-on-year as of Q3 2024. Retail deposits contributed significantly, with an increase of 140.8 billion CNY [6]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first three quarters of 2024 was reported at 1.89%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the first half of 2024. The bank has implemented measures to manage liability costs, which may help alleviate pressure on NIM [7]. - Non-interest income decreased by 6% to 45.4 billion CNY, with a notable decline in fee and commission income due to regulatory changes affecting insurance agency revenues [8]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased to 0.86% as of Q3 2024, reflecting a slight rise but still remaining at a relatively low level compared to industry standards. The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 301.9% [9][22]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q3 2024, the bank's capital adequacy ratios showed improvement, with the core tier 1 capital ratio at 9.42% and the total capital ratio at 14.23% [23]. Profitability Forecast - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 at 0.89, 0.93, and 0.98 CNY respectively, with the current A-share price corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.62, 0.57, and 0.53 for the respective years [10][24].