Shandong Daye (603278) 东兴证券·2024-11-01 00:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The construction of the production base in Morocco is expected to enhance the company's overseas business growth and improve profit margins by reducing shipping costs and addressing international trade challenges [3][10]. - The company has faced significant pressure from intensified industry competition, leading to a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 Q3, with a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan, down 7.97% year-on-year, and a net loss of 108 million yuan, down 202.10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the tire wire industry, with expectations for margin recovery as industry consolidation progresses [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024 H1, the company reported a revenue of 3.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.97% and a net loss of 108 million yuan [3][11]. - The company's earnings per share dropped from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to -0.32 yuan in 2024 [3]. Business Segments - The tire wire segment generated a revenue of 1.118 billion yuan in 2024 H1, accounting for 42.5% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 5.54% [4]. - The steel cord segment achieved a revenue of 1.285 billion yuan in 2024 H1, representing 48.8% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 4.86% [5]. Growth Prospects - The planned investment of approximately 1.485 billion yuan in the Moroccan production base aims to enhance production capacity and reduce operational costs, with the first phase expected to start construction in January 2025 and be operational by December 2026 [6][10]. - The company's overseas revenue has significantly increased from 447.5 million yuan in 2020 to 1.349 billion yuan in 2023, marking a growth of 201.4% [6]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.737 billion yuan, 6.675 billion yuan, and 7.611 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 34 million yuan, 242 million yuan, and 379 million yuan [11][12].