社服行业周报：政策效果显现，社零数据改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (Maintain) [5][25]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy has stimulated domestic consumption, leading to improvements in retail sales data for September. The total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1% compared to August [2][10]. - The duty-free sales in Hainan continued to face pressure, with September sales amounting to 1.676 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 38.4% [3][16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLve Hotel, JinJiang Hotel, and others due to the recent improvements in domestic consumption [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking - The social service industry index rose by 4.50% in the week of October 14-18, ranking 6th among all first-level industries [8]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1. Improvement in Retail Sales Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 3.3% from January to September. Urban retail sales grew by 3.1%, while rural retail sales increased by 3.9% [2][10]. - The retail sales of essential goods showed varied performance, with food and beverage categories seeing growth, while cosmetics and jewelry categories faced declines [10][11]. 2.2. Hainan Duty-Free Sales Under Pressure - In September, Hainan's duty-free sales amounted to 1.676 billion yuan, down 38.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales figure of 24.01 billion yuan from January to September, reflecting a 31.3% decline [3][16]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights significant growth in cross-border business travel, with a 72% year-on-year increase in travel volume, indicating a recovery in international travel demand [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Songcheng Performing Arts, ShouLve Hotel, JinJiang Hotel, and others due to the positive impact of consumption stimulus policies [4][19].